February 7, 2023

For the first time in a New York Times/Siena College national poll published this month, Democrats had a higher share of support among white college graduates than among non-white voters. And a survey conducted this month for the AARP by a bipartisan polling team from Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research found that Democrats in Congress’ battlefield districts underperformed with black, Spanish and Asian American voters over 50 compared to previous elections – with especially worrying signs for Democrats in the last two constituencies.

Among Hispanic and Asian-American voters over 50, Democrats were only five and three percentage points ahead of the general congressional vote, with Democrats doing markedly better with Hispanic and Asian-American college graduates than those without a four-year college degree. had. , according to the survey.

In the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats won 69 percent of Latino voters and 77 percent of Asian-American voters overall, according to exit polls. That data isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison, but it does suggest significant shifts between diverse groups of voters that Democrats hoped to strengthen as part of their grassroots.

“No one is sticking their head in the sand and not recognizing that there is softness among African American voters and Latinos and Asian Americans,” said John Anzalone, the founder of Impact Research and a prominent Democratic pollster. “You have to fight for every voter, and we have work to do to convince.”

For years, Democrats have argued over whether to prioritize convincing elusive swing voters or trying to excite grassroots voters, such as black and Hispanic voters, and young people across the board. But while the primary political imperative for both parties is to re-energize and expand their bases, some Democrats are increasingly arguing that in many races this year there will be no choice but to pursue both tracks. The question of who will be a swinging voter in 2022 is a fluid one, with broad swaths of Americans channeling their frustrations over complex economic issues to the party in power.